The conversation around Trump’s tariffs, which were unveiled at the beginning of April as part of the White House’s 'Liberation Day', is clouded by uncertainty.
With the situation changing every day, trade negotiations ongoing, pressure from financial markets and the sense that President Trump can change his mind on the flip of a dime, that’s understandable.
But the cycling industry is beginning to signal the real – and potential – consequences of Trump’s plans in the US and the rest of the world.
Trouble in the USA
Last week, two of the world’s biggest bike brands – Specialized and Trek – announced they are hiking their prices in their home country.
In an email sent to dealers, Trek said it will raise prices across most of its bike lines. The increases are unspecified, but they will be applied as dealers make orders.
The Wisconsin-based brand says it has applied the increase to back-ordered items, too, in order to discourage a run on inventory at pre-tariff prices, according to Escape Collective.
Specialized, based in Morgan Hill, California, is taking a different tact. In an email sent to retailers by North America Regional Leader Jesse Porter, Specialized said it’s adding a 10 per cent line-item surcharge to B2B invoices on select models, including the new Turbo Levo 4 eMTB, after May 1. The surcharge will also apply to orders made from the brand’s consumer site.
Specialized wrote: “We maintain flexibility to update or remove the charge if government tariffs change.”
This approach speaks to the speed at which companies are having to react and to the uncertainty around tariffs moving forward.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Arnold Kamler, chair of Kent International, one of the biggest US bike manufacturers, said the company has already raised prices by 12 per cent this year off the back of Trump’s initial 20 per cent tariff on China.
“Our sales have been steadily dropping because of our prices being so high now,” Kamler said. “There has been no consideration to us despite the hundreds of jobs we have created so far.”
Beyond price hikes, tariffs are already upending brands' plans for new product launches. We know of at least one brand with an upcoming launch that will limit imports to the US, citing the impact of “current United States tariff policies”.
Elsewhere, smaller brands are simply cancelling shipments to the USA. After the initial announcement, Borealis and Tern announced they would pause shipments to the country.
And although Tern has resumed shipments, that could change. Uncertainty, indeed.
The impact in Asia, the impact in America
Trump’s announcement revealed huge tariffs on countries including China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand and more.
Writing for BikeBiz, a UK trade publication, Madison CEO Dominic Langan described these countries not as “fringe manufacturing locations” but the “beating heart of the global cycling supply chain”.
“For an industry still navigating oversupply, squeezed margins, and consumer price sensitivity, this couldn’t have come at a worse time,” Langan wrote.
The US government revealed a week later that the heavy tariffs would be suspended for 90 days with a lower reciprocal rate of 10 per cent on all goods coming into the country.
This will likely come as a relief for Giant, even if it’s short-lived. The Taiwanese brand last month revealed its profits plunged by 62 per cent in 2024 as it faced discounting, inventory challenges and reduced demand in Europe and the US, its second largest market after Europe. Now, there’s Trump to deal with.
Giant says the US president’s actions are “absolutely not positive” for the cycling industry and it “will inevitably be forced to reflect the cost” of the tariffs, which could be as high as 32 per cent in Taiwan after the 90-day delay.
The impact of Trump’s tariffs are being felt across all four corners of the globe, but the recent Sea Otter Classic in California – one of the world’s most important bike shows – ensured the president was top of the agenda on home turf.
Reflecting on conversations Langan had at the show, the CEO of Madison, UK distributor for brands including Shimano, Park Tool and Lazer, wrote: “Brands were reeling. Initial mitigation plans crafted during earlier tariff rounds had now collapsed. Production lines were being paused, containers rerouted or cancelled altogether.”
Langan added that the “path forward is anything but clear”. Should bicycle manufacturers in East Asia “buckle”, Langan predicts the industry will face new pressure just as it begins to stabilise after the pandemic.
The escalating trade war with China could have the biggest impact. Trump imposed new 125 per cent tariffs on China in response to its retaliatory tariffs on US imports.
According to a 2021 study, 87 per cent of bikes imported to the US are from China, making it one of the most China-dependent industries in the country.
If Kent International’s 12 per cent price hike wasn’t troublesome enough, Kamler, the company’s chair, warns prices across the industry could rise by 50 per cent if Trump retains tariffs at the current level.
The tariffs are ‘naive’
On the other side of the Atlantic, Brompton’s CEO Will Butler-Adams is no stranger to frank words, and in an interview with The Telegraph he has labelled the US administration's plans as “a little bit naive”.
Brompton manufactures its folding bikes in London, with welding aided by a facility in Sheffield, 150 miles north of the capital, but parts are sourced from countries such as Taiwan and China. The US is also one of Brompton’s largest export markets, where it sells bikes through 120 dealerships and two stores.
Trump has said his tariffs will help jobs and factories return to the US, but Butler-Adams says shifting production to the country is far more complicated than Trump has claimed.
“You could build the factory. You could buy the equipment. But the know-how, the engineering, the skills and experience, you’d have to open up your immigration if you want to sort that out and obviously that’s not at the top of the agenda for any of the political parties,” Butler-Adams told The Telegraph.
Brompton’s CEO also revealed that the company has paused plans to open a store in Los Angeles and possibly one in San Francisco, saying “things are all over the shop” and “need to settle down a bit first”. He said Brompton will likely raise prices in the US “between 5pc and 10 pc” to offset the tariffs.
Butler-Adams’ most intriguing remark to The Telegraph is arguably in relation to logistics. He says shipping goods from Europe into America will likely become more expensive, but shipping goods from Europe to China “will probably get very cheap".
Considering China is already a major market for the folding-bike brand, could that mean Brompton shifts its focus away from the US?
Even though uncertainty reigns, the actions of companies such as Brompton, Trek, Specialized and Kent International will reveal how the cycling industry and wider manufacturing landscape is likely to change – and, in turn, the USA’s future relationship with the rest of the world.
